New Seat Details - Leicestershire South

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Leicestershire South been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
CON	34,691	65.9%
LAB	12,867	24.4%
LIB	2,234	4.2%
UKIP	1,864	3.5%
Green	966	1.8%
OTH	47	0.1%
CON Majority	21,824	41.4%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Leicestershire South: Map

List of old seats forming part of Leicestershire South

Old seat: Charnwood

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Charnwood, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Charnwood				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Blaby	Ellis	4,030	Leicestershire South	1,862	832	78	49	47	0	0	15	2,883
Blaby	Fairestone	3,713	Leicestershire South	1,796	768	80	49	43	0	0	11	2,747
Blaby	Forest	5,324	Leicestershire South	2,948	958	101	70	53	0	0	12	4,142
Blaby	Muxloe	3,362	Leicestershire South	1,824	498	45	38	33	0	0	9	2,447
Charnwood	Anstey	5,213	Charnwood	1,946	1,177	272	193	172	0	0	27	3,787
Charnwood	Birstall Wanlip	5,250	Charnwood	1,811	1,245	268	58	52	0	0	9	3,443
Charnwood	Birstall Watermead	5,108	Charnwood	2,243	1,366	111	72	58	0	0	14	3,864
Charnwood	East Goscote	2,287	Rutland and Melton	1,051	494	46	34	26	0	0	28	1,679
Charnwood	Forest Bradgate	2,484	Charnwood	1,453	440	29	27	31	0	0	5	1,985
Charnwood	Mountsorrel	5,247	Charnwood	2,270	1,243	88	196	165	0	0	28	3,990
Charnwood	Queniborough	2,539	Rutland and Melton	1,232	426	37	30	25	0	0	5	1,755
Charnwood	Rothley and Thurcaston	5,292	Charnwood	2,498	853	71	160	53	0	0	17	3,652
Charnwood	Syston East	5,223	Charnwood	2,000	1,259	250	68	56	0	0	11	3,644
Charnwood	Syston West	4,985	Charnwood	2,255	1,363	81	63	54	0	0	11	3,827
Charnwood	Thurmaston	7,414	Charnwood	2,749	2,503	135	106	77	0	0	60	5,630
Charnwood	Wreake Villages	2,415	Charnwood	1,290	373	24	25	21	0	0	4	1,737
Hinckley and Bosworth	Groby	5,440	Charnwood	2,093	1,179	336	232	69	0	0	55	3,964
	Total	75,326		33,321	16,977	2,052	1,470	1,035	0	0	321	55,176

The full details of these calculations are given on the Charnwood seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

Old seat: Leicestershire South

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Leicestershire South, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Leicestershire South				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Blaby	Blaby South	3,672	Leicestershire South	1,513	721	289	84	59	0	0	0	2,666
Blaby	Cosby with South Whetstone	3,720	Leicestershire South	1,690	792	73	71	52	0	0	0	2,678
Blaby	Countesthorpe	5,933	Leicestershire South	2,486	740	343	103	73	0	0	0	3,745
Blaby	Croft Hill	1,733	Leicestershire South	846	286	27	32	23	0	0	0	1,214
Blaby	Enderby and St John's	3,574	Leicestershire South	1,450	832	88	219	58	0	0	0	2,647
Blaby	Millfield	1,915	Leicester West	648	676	48	42	29	0	0	0	1,443
Blaby	Narborough and Littlethorpe	3,945	Leicestershire South	2,011	731	110	79	64	0	0	0	2,995
Blaby	Normanton	2,030	Leicestershire South	926	391	38	38	27	0	0	0	1,420
Blaby	North Whetstone	3,817	Leicestershire South	1,846	894	102	83	61	0	0	0	2,986
Blaby	Pastures	3,755	Leicestershire South	1,840	620	91	73	52	0	0	0	2,676
Blaby	Ravenhurst and Fosse	5,142	Leicester West	1,749	2,000	133	121	79	0	0	0	4,082
Blaby	Saxondale	5,494	Leicestershire South	2,257	1,077	470	402	96	0	0	0	4,302
Blaby	Stanton and Flamville	6,021	Leicestershire South	3,117	819	98	114	72	0	0	0	4,220
Blaby	Winstanley	4,893	Leicester West	1,850	1,840	122	106	75	0	0	0	3,993
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Astley	1,546	Leicestershire South	950	260	37	36	23	0	0	0	1,306
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Broughton	2,051	Leicestershire South	1,155	381	38	43	27	0	0	0	1,644
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Primethorpe	1,299	Leicestershire South	639	262	30	27	19	0	0	0	977
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Sutton	1,448	Leicestershire South	764	289	30	32	21	0	0	0	1,136
Harborough	Dunton	1,688	Leicestershire South	937	212	20	30	20	0	0	0	1,219
Harborough	Lutterworth Brookfield	1,811	Daventry and Lutterworth	881	328	37	34	23	0	0	0	1,303
Harborough	Lutterworth Orchard	1,622	Daventry and Lutterworth	767	350	34	101	24	0	0	0	1,276
Harborough	Lutterworth Springs	1,642	Daventry and Lutterworth	737	393	38	98	25	0	0	0	1,291
Harborough	Lutterworth Swift	1,792	Daventry and Lutterworth	852	459	32	38	24	0	0	0	1,405
Harborough	Misterton	1,955	Daventry and Lutterworth	1,054	307	30	35	25	0	0	0	1,451
Harborough	Peatling	1,826	Leicestershire South	933	259	23	96	22	0	0	0	1,333
Harborough	Ullesthorpe	1,602	Leicestershire South	901	245	23	96	21	0	0	0	1,286
	Total	75,926		34,799	16,164	2,404	2,233	1,094	0	0	0	56,694

The full details of these calculations are given on the Leicestershire South seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Leicestershire South

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	NAT Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Leicestershire South
Blaby	Blaby South	3,710	Leicestershire South	1,513	721	289	84	59	0	0	0	2,666
Blaby	Cosby with South Whetstone	3,726	Leicestershire South	1,690	792	73	71	52	0	0	0	2,678
Blaby	Countesthorpe	5,213	Leicestershire South	2,486	740	343	103	73	0	0	0	3,745
Blaby	Croft Hill	1,689	Leicestershire South	846	286	27	32	23	0	0	0	1,214
Blaby	Ellis	4,080	Charnwood	1,862	832	78	49	47	0	0	15	2,883
Blaby	Enderby and St John's	3,684	Leicestershire South	1,450	832	88	219	58	0	0	0	2,647
Blaby	Fairestone	3,888	Charnwood	1,796	768	80	49	43	0	0	11	2,747
Blaby	Forest	5,860	Charnwood	2,948	958	101	70	53	0	0	12	4,142
Blaby	Muxloe	3,462	Charnwood	1,824	498	45	38	33	0	0	9	2,447
Blaby	Narborough and Littlethorpe	4,168	Leicestershire South	2,011	731	110	79	64	0	0	0	2,995
Blaby	Normanton	1,976	Leicestershire South	926	391	38	38	27	0	0	0	1,420
Blaby	North Whetstone	4,155	Leicestershire South	1,846	894	102	83	61	0	0	0	2,986
Blaby	Pastures	3,725	Leicestershire South	1,840	620	91	73	52	0	0	0	2,676
Blaby	Saxondale	5,987	Leicestershire South	2,257	1,077	470	402	96	0	0	0	4,302
Blaby	Stanton and Flamville	5,872	Leicestershire South	3,117	819	98	114	72	0	0	0	4,220
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Astley	1,817	Leicestershire South	950	260	37	36	23	0	0	0	1,306
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Broughton	2,286	Leicestershire South	1,155	381	38	43	27	0	0	0	1,644
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Primethorpe	1,360	Leicestershire South	639	262	30	27	19	0	0	0	977
Harborough	Broughton Astley-Sutton	1,582	Leicestershire South	764	289	30	32	21	0	0	0	1,136
Harborough	Dunton	1,696	Leicestershire South	937	212	20	30	20	0	0	0	1,219
Harborough	Peatling	1,855	Leicestershire South	933	259	23	96	22	0	0	0	1,333
Harborough	Ullesthorpe	1,789	Leicestershire South	901	245	23	96	21	0	0	0	1,286
	Total	73,580		34,691	12,867	2,234	1,864	966	0	0	47	52,669

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Leicestershire South. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Alberto Costa (CON)
County/Area:	Leicestershire (East Midlands)
Electorate:	73,580
Turnout:	71.6%

Leicestershire South: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Leicestershire South: Overview

Introduction